One Country Project's Hot Dish

Heidi Heitkamp [00:00:00]:
Hi, this is Heidi Heitkamp. Welcome back to The Hot Dish. We're doing a special edition post VP Debate, and with me is Chuck Corra, and Joel Heitkamp. And Joel's gonna take the lead because he's been talking a lot about this today and the impact of this debate and what we think is gonna happen going forward. So, Joel, take it away.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:00:20]:
Thanks, Heidi. It's a pleasure to have Chuck with us. Chuck, it's like anything. You know how this goes after a debate. Grade it. Who won?

Chuck Corra [00:00:29]:
Oh, man. You know what? I. I'm going to be honest with you. I think it was a draw. I don't think that there was a clear winner or loser. I think that both men came out and kind of performed. I bet. As expected, Tim Walz is a little bit nervous starting out.

Chuck Corra [00:00:45]:
He really found his stride. JD Vance has done this kind of thing before, and honestly, he was coming in with a handicap of about plus 15, because if he didn't say anything about people eating cats and dogs, he was going to be better off than his, uh, than the guy on the top of the ticket. So I know it's probably not the most popular answer, but I'm gonna have to say it was a draw.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:01:04]:
Well, Heidi, you said the same thing on my radio show this morning. I mean, you walked away feeling it was a draw.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:01:10]:
Well, I said it was a draw up until the last question, and then who was listening? So I could go through chapter and verse of all the kind of exaggerations of JD Vance. I mean, I almost came to the television when he talked about how Donald Trump saved the ACA. Obamacare was just like, I mean, what planet are you on, dude? But, you know, he this. I always grade campaigns or debates based on decorum and based on kind of the visuals. And JD Vance was really smart. He came out looking very calm, very willing to kind of concede points, but move on. I thought he was a masterclass in how you debate, and Tim was obviously nervous. But at the end, when you really saw the real JD Vance, and that is the guy who will do anything for Donald Trump, including lie about an election, I think all of that goodwill that he was building, you know, took some of that polish off that apple.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:02:15]:
And so I would give the debate by a margin because of the last question to Tim.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:02:20]:
Chuck, my experience with Tim Walz, on a personal level, has been very, just conversational as a friend. And I have to tell you, I wish more of that would have came across last night. That being said, what I found out on a professional level is that he's a better counter puncher than a puncher. And I'm curious if you felt that same way.

Chuck Corra [00:02:42]:
Yeah, I 100% agree. It's clear that it's not the environment that he's most comfortable in, and that's understandable. Like, he's a governor. He's not getting up and debating people often. He's working across the aisle a lot, but he is good at counterpunching. There are things that I wish he would have hit on a little bit more. But I do think, like when they start talking about energy, JD Vance, for example, brought up that we need to be making more domestic produced energy. Tim Wallace hit him back to say that, like that is the entire purpose of the IRA almost.

Chuck Corra [00:03:11]:
It was a really smart move, I think. Senator Heitkamp, to your point about the last question on democracy, that's really where the counterpunch from Tim Walz really mattered. And the Harris campaign is already out this morning with an ad cut with that exchange between them where JD Vance refused to admit that Biden won the election. I think if anything came out of this debate, that counterpunch is the one that will really matter because as we know, people who are independent voters or who still need to be persuaded or still need to be turned out to vote for this election, they, by a large margin, believe, rightly, that Biden won the election. And so something like that could very well make a difference to some of them.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:03:51]:
Heidi, you said something, I think that is spot on when you said who was watching by the end of the debate. That being said, I would make an argument. Sure, the numbers look good, but the attention span today, Tim Walz gave them the soundbites they wanted, you know, the comments without Tim walls having to say them on the news. And I'm curious what you think about that.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:04:13]:
Well, I saw a poll where independents said Tim won, and then they asked him if they watched and they said no. You know, and so people are going to get, people are going to get fed whatever piece of the debate that the other side or the candidates think is important. And to your point, Chuck, you know, the kind of what the line was, you know, his non answer is damning. Something like that. And I thought it was, was Tim's best moment. But I also think that the, that JD Vance said a lot of stuff about choice, that if I were a single issue voter in that political party that had worked my hind end off to stop people from having abortions, and now he's like, oh, man, you know, we need to have a different discussion. You know, I have a friend who once said about Republicans and abortion, they're for banning it except for the exceptions of rape, incest and falling poll numbers. And so I think JD Vance, JD Vance really muffed the abortion portion of this by not being clear.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:05:27]:
And I think women, they know they have a gender gap problem. They know that that could swing Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania. And so they're trying to find that sweet spot. But there's just too much history, especially for Vance. There's just too much history for people to say, trust me now.

Chuck Corra [00:05:49]:
Yeah, I completely agree with that. And Joel, you mentioned that Walz is good at counterpunching. And one of the lines that he landed on that particular subject, I'm paraphrasing, but he said something to the tune of geographic boundaries should not determine your access to healthcare and access to reproductive care. And that was a line that stuck out because they brought up that horrific case of the woman in Georgia who died because she couldn't get access, access to care when she was pregnant. And that is what sticks in voters minds. JD Vance liked to trot out the line that it's about choice. It's about voters making that choice. But they didn't have the opportunity to make a choice like that in Georgia or in Tennessee.

Chuck Corra [00:06:26]:
And so I think, like, that line stuck out to me as something that was really strong. It was probably second to the democracy issue. Tim Walz is strongest subject, I think, in this debate, and he really stood out to it. And, yeah, Senator Highcap, I think you're right that he did himself no favors with trying to close that gender gap on that issue.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:06:45]:
I want to throw one out at you guys, though. I want to throw out what I think was a lost opportunity for Tim, which is he has something going that the other people in this race don't. He hunts, he owns guns, and he knows how to use guns. I have the advantage of having a 27 year old producer on my show. And the one thing that she constantly talks about along with people her age is gun violence and school shootings. And she brought it up this morning. When I came into work this morning, that was the first thing she brought up. She was happy that it got brought up last night versus never getting brought up during the presidential debate.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:07:24]:
But this is my take on it, you guys. I think there's an opening and an opportunity for Tim to go ahead and make an argument on the things that can happen. Clip size, the mechanics of a gun, the knowledge of a gun, and then look in a way where that person that he's trying to connect with and bring to this campaign starts nodding their head and saying, yep, he's one of us, that he does understand there could be a three day waiting period instead of this whole notion of ar, we should ban guns. And, Heidi, I'm curious what you think about that.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:07:59]:
I think that's an excellent point, Joel. And JD Vance, you know, kind of wants to arm up schools. And walls said, you know, I'm a school teacher. That's not what we should be doing. But, you know, if you listened, you didn't really hear a plan. You heard sensible gun control, didn't talk about, you know, let's talk about the size of, you know, that not, you know, what a weapon looks like, but what it can do and how we could limit the kind of exposure people have and then really demonstrate his knowledge of, you know, guns. And I don't think, I totally agree with you, Joel, that he missed it. But I also think that it also was probably the best moment of the debate for the american public where Tim Walz said, my son basically witnessed a shooting.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:08:47]:
And, you know, JD Vance turned to him and said, I'm so sorry that happened in your family. And, you know, I think that's what America wants. They want people to disagree, but I. But also have that compassion. So I thought JD Vance kind of won that moment because he didn't hesitate to reach out as a father to a father.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:09:07]:
Chuck, quick question for you, and I love the fact that both Heidi and I are getting a chance to visit with you about this today. But does it matter what we're talking about today? Does it matter.

Chuck Corra [00:09:22]:
The VP debate in general? I think when I watched it last night, my inclination was probably not like, who's watching this? But then I had to level set and remember that what people are ultimately going to see, the majority of them are going to see the clips that come out of it. So I think some of these moments, if they can be packaged right and if they can get to people, it can make a difference on the margins ultimately. Like, I think people are not going to probably make their voting decision based on the VP candidate. Perhaps, maybe they will, but I think it's going to be about the top of the ticket. But when it comes to things like democracy, like refusing to accept the results of the election, which is what JD Vance did, like not having an answer on abortion, that was a real answer. Not having an answer on health care, which I think is probably an underrated part of that debate, that JD Vance I don't think he knows who his running mate is based on some of his answers with that, because he was a full throated supporter of the Affordable Care act in last night's debate for some reason, which was wild. I think that. That the Harris campaign especially can play this right.

Chuck Corra [00:10:27]:
But the other thing is, I do think it softened JD Vance's appeal to people. I think it made him look a little bit more palatable to the american public, which I think is scary. One thing I wanted to mention at the beginning of the debate, and this put a bee in my bonnet, he mentioned how a really compelling story when he grew up, out, his mom was on food assistance, and, like, that was his story. It's a great story, but what people don't know is he took the better part of his book, Hillbilly Elegy, to disparage people that took food assistance and other types of government assistance. That's the type of person he is. But he was playing to an audience. So from that standpoint, I think it did make his image look a little bit better. So I am concerned about that.

Chuck Corra [00:11:10]:
But again, I think to answer your question, on the margins, it certainly could. And if the Harris campaign plays it right, I think that they can take some clips from that and really make an impact in some of these. These important districts.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:11:22]:
Joel, if I can just add, you know, I think there are moments where Tim did a really good job and exactly what you're saying. You know, kind of if you watch the whole debate, you saw someone who was nervous, who, you know, kind of felt. Kind of felt awkward up there. But, you know, I know Tim. And so I was like, okay, that's just who he is. But this was his introduction to the public, and JD Vance was very poised, very calm, you know, and when you looked at instant polling, JD Vance made up huge ground on people who watched it on negative. I mean, came in way underwater, really improved, still had a negative, you know, kind of rating, but greatly improved. But the interesting thing is, Tim walls actually greatly improved almost to the same amount.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:12:11]:
His favorability. He was likable. He was likable because he was relatable. And I think that we shouldn't underplay that in terms of evaluation of this debate. But at the end of the day, this is late in the season, people are already voting, and this is about getting out your vote. And I just heard Joel from a friend of ours, Ellie Shaffer, and she is traveling the country, and she said there's a lot of excitement out there for democrats, a lot of people nervous. And a lot of people remember 2016 when they took it for granted, and they're not doing that again. And so the culinary workers, she said that when they did their GOTV rally, you know, signing up people, they've never had that many people show up, and so people are showing up to do the work.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:13:01]:
You know, Chuck, I gotta add, though, that the phrase that some might think is overused, you know, who would you rather have a beer with? First off, Chuck. So, you know, I invented that phrase. But that being said, you know, the one thing that came across to me last night was that Tim Walz, and I think that's why all of us are saying he came off nervous at times, maybe not as ready as we would have hoped, but still saw his numbers go up was because out of the two, for me, Chuck, he was still the guy I'd rather have a beer with.

Chuck Corra [00:13:32]:
100%. I actually know people that have had a beer with JD Vance, a comedian I know named Trae Crowder, who's talked about it before. And he said he was fine, but he was nothing to write home about. And I can definitely see that with him. But, yeah, Tim Walz, I think this is what's so important about him. On issues like guns, but on issues especially domestic, about healthcare, people feel like they can trust him because he talks like somebody they know. That's why they're putting him in ads where he's changing air filters and running ads about how you get a hot dish recipe if you donate to the campaign. He's someone who's a normal guy, and JD Vance just isn't.

Chuck Corra [00:14:10]:
And I think that the more that they can play into that contrast, the better off they're going to be.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:14:15]:
And when you look at the debate, guess what Walz said? He said one word. He said, farmers. And I went, amen. Someone actually put farmers in a debate. Someone actually talked about soil erosion, talked about the challenges of rural America. And I thought, you know, okay, all of those people in rural America, you don't get us. You're just coastal elites. Here's a guy who literally talked about farming on the debate stage, and that's got to count for something you would hope.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:14:46]:
Yeah, spot on, Heidi. Spot on.

Chuck Corra [00:14:49]:
Great point.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:14:49]:
And believe me, it got noticed by Joel and Sue Heitkamp were watching the debate last night and kind of screamed about. I would also say this, that from my standpoint, it's like the Kansas City Chiefs, right? They get graded on a curve when it comes to refs.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:15:07]:
He's still bitter about the Kansas City Chiefs game last year with Minnesota, which actually was. I mean, you know, the thumb was on the scale, Joel.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:15:16]:
Yeah, it always is. So let me. Let me just say this, that, you know, Tim Walz got called out for the timing of a trip to, you know, but the curve, the ability for media to call them out, you know, last night, I believe those moderators knew when JD Vance was lying to. And when they did get after him finally for lying, he got mad and he filibustered, and he showed who JD Vance really was, Heidi. To the point where they had to turn his microphone off.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:15:49]:
Yeah. In fact, this morning, I did a. Did a quick little hit with John Sununu, and they asked the question about, you know, was it fair for the moderators? I said, he took that bait. That was really silly of him. I have this. This thing that I look at anytime people look overly defensive, it means there's something to the claim. And so I thought he looked overly defensive. And the reality is, I don't care what the refugee laws are.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:16:16]:
I don't care what the visa laws are. These folks are in this country legally, and he can, you know, give us, you know, the legal answer. That was really a bad move of his. I think it was single handedly. Other than the last question, I think single handedly, it was the lowest moment for Vance.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:16:33]:
But, Chuck, last night, Tim Walz never brought up eating dogs and eating cats. I would have had him. If I was coaching him, I would have had him bring that up. I would have had him bring up that those Haitians that are in Springfield are human beings.

Chuck Corra [00:16:47]:
Yeah, I think if there was a missed opportunity, that was potentially one of them, because that's an issue that's so clear cut. And, look, I've talked to people from Springfield, Ohio. There are dyed in the wool Republicans, Trump supporting republicans from Springfield, who are disgusted by the rhetoric that's come out about Donald Trump and JD Vance with respect to the haitian immigrants there. And I just think it's an easy layup. You know, it was a missed opportunity, but one that they can take advantage of in the coming weeks. But it's just that issue there is so clear cut. And I agree that JD Vance really made a fool of himself when he was trying to question the moderators on that, because he's. He's not dumb.

Chuck Corra [00:17:30]:
He plays off to different audiences all the time, but he's not dumb. He knows exactly what he's doing. He also knows that that was 100% a lie.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:17:37]:
Yeah. Last comments. Hi. Do you give them yours?

Heidi Heitkamp [00:17:41]:
I mean, I think at the end of the day, they both. I mean, if you look at polling, this was a tie. I would put the thumb on the scale for Tim. I think. I do think there's something to not, you know, there's a muscle memory to this work and if you aren't out there doing it every day. And the one thing about JD Vance is he's out there taking the hits every day. And he came in very cleverly. I don't think he was.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:18:09]:
I don't think people expected him to be as calm, as conciliatory. And that was a brilliant move. And so I think in terms of debate strategy, he had the right strategy. It's just that he didn't have the right policies. And Tim, just, you know, there were times when I said, yeah, you got a good soundbite there. But let's talk about your policies like healthcare. Let's talk about what you've said and what you're going to do on trade that's going to hurt farmers. And I thought some of that could have come out more clearly.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:18:42]:
Yeah. Chuck, last thoughts?

Chuck Corra [00:18:44]:
Yeah, I would agree with what was just said. I don't think that either of them hurt themselves really at all too much. I think JD Vance definitely improved of his personal Persona and potentially set himself up for a personal agenda. I think Tim Wells was nervous, but he recovered in the end. And the soundbites that they can pull from that for ads and for future engagement I think is going to be beneficial. There were some missed opportunities, but there's always going to be in debates. I just, I think that both, both men have something they can pull from that and use to their advantage. But ultimately, I think that there's going to be marginal difference from this.

Chuck Corra [00:19:20]:
It's going to come down like what was already said to turn out and getting voters out for these.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:19:24]:
Yeah.

Heidi Heitkamp [00:19:24]:
Yeah. You know what, folks? You owe it to yourself to see Chuck's work. Go listen to him. Appodlachia. I appreciate you coming on The Hot Dish.

Chuck Corra [00:19:34]:
Yeah, thanks for having me. It's been fun.